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TOPIC: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack

Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #1

I was thinking about trade items, and how they are represented amongst random tokens, and I put together a spreadsheet showing the expected number of trade items per token 10-pack for 2015, and also compared it to the figures I came up with for 2014.

I was interested to note that 2015 has way fewer Alchemist's Ink and way more Darkwood Plank than last year - presumably due to the number of Mushrooms in slots that might otherwise be Potions.

Here's a summary of the number of trade goods you would expect from 120 2015 Token 10 Packs, 120 2014 Token 10 Packs, and the percent difference (calculated as 100*(2015 value - 2014 value) / 2014 value ).
Trade Item2015 Year Total Per 120 Packs2014 Year Total Per 120 PacksPercent Difference
Alchemist's Ink37.56-60%
Alchemist's Parchment9.129.120%
Aragonite1.441.56-8%
Darkwood Plank16.089.9661%
Dwarven Steel6.728.4-20%
Elven Bismuth1.441.220%
Enchanter's Munition5.283.7242%
Golden Fleece000%
Minotaur Hide4.24.20%
Mystic Silk15.2412.2425%
Oil of Enchantment1.441.440%
Philosopher's Stone5.8810.32-43%
Total69.8469.720%
Gold5,5806,180-10%

You can see the detailed calculations:
URL: 2015 Token 10 Pack Expected Trade Items

One big assumption I'm making is that every item within a given rarity is equally rare - so for example you have a 1/40 chance of getting any rare, not a 1/20 chance of getting some and a 1/60 chance of getting others. Perhaps people have empirical stats they have tracked on packs they have opened to say if that has been likely true in the past?
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Last Edit: 5 years 8 months ago by Matthew Hayward.
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #2

I think every item with a given rarity is equally rare, but you'll get more of some and less of others due to the randomness of the pack generation.
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #3

  • YupImJen
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I'd love to see a historical comparison, particularly as it compares to trade goods provided in the condensed packs and recipes for that year.

Also, this is super helpful as we consider the transmute recipes for this year.
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You can find more info on individual tokens at www.tokendb.com/
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #4

  • Incognito
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Will Mushrooms actually be converted into Darkwood Planks?

I wouldn't be surprised if they were converted into Distilled Healing Potions instead.
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #5

Incognito wrote:
Will Mushrooms actually be converted into Darkwood Planks?

I wouldn't be surprised if they were converted into Distilled Healing Potions instead.

Yeah - I'm speculating on that - but Fermented Frostberry can be exchanged for Darkwood Plank - so that's what I'm guessing.
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #6

YupImJen wrote:
I'd love to see a historical comparison, particularly as it compares to trade goods provided in the condensed packs and recipes for that year.

I lost my notes - but I recall that for 2014 the condensed packs were pretty much exactly what you would get if you melted it all down yourself - give or take +1/2 of thing X extra and -1/2 of thing Y short. Overall I figured you came out ahead getting condensed packs if you were just going to melt them all down given the time and postage involved.
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #7

  • balthasar
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I would also assume the Mushrooms will go towards Ink vs Planks. Jeff usually does a good job of keeping the trade goods the same from year to year.
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #8

YupImJen wrote:
I'd love to see a historical comparison, particularly as it compares to trade goods provided in the condensed packs and recipes for that year.

Also, this is super helpful as we consider the transmute recipes for this year.

I found the 2014 condensed pack info at the bottom of this page:

truedungeon.com/the-2014-token-collection

Since you get random rares and uncommons as part of the condensed order, the only potential place for discrepancy would be in the commons - here were the 2014 condensed packs and expected common trade goods from commons in 120 packs:
Trade Item2014 1K Condensed PackExpected from 120 packs 2014 (commons only)
Alchemist's Ink22.52
Alchemist's Parchment33.36
Darkwood Plank44.2
Dwarven Steel98.4
Enchanter's Munition10.84
Minotaur Hide44.2
Mystic Silk45.04
Philosopher's Stone21.68
Gold2,1002,100
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 8 months ago #9

  • valetutto
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Cool thanks this saves me some time from having to do exactly this.

The trade good do flucuate from year to year. It might not seem like a lot of variation but it does add up.
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Re: Expected Trade Items per 2015 Token 10 Pack 5 years 7 months ago #10

I've seen this thread mentioned a few times recently as people are thinking about condensed packs - so I'm bumping it. I also added 2015 expected trade goods from commons to the spreadsheet in note #1.
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